The EXPECT project hosts a two-day workshop exploring the drivers of climate variability from seasonal to multi-decadal scales.
Key topics include European heat extremes, Southern Hemisphere jet dynamics, emerging agricultural drought hotspots, counterfactual seasonal hindcasts, multi-decadal circulation trends, and approaches to understanding and predicting heatwave intensification.
The sessions will highlight both observational and modelling perspectives, focusing on the roles of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing in recent and future climate trends.
Agenda
22 September 2025, Monday
Join us live here.
| 14:00-14:05 | Introduction (Doug Smith) |
| 14:05-14:35 | Can we better trace European heat extremes back to atmospheric circulation patterns? (Julianna Oliveira, Leipzig Uni) |
| 14:35-15:05 | Explaining and predicting the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet (Julia Mindlin, Leipzig Uni) |
| 15:05-15:35 | Emerging hot spots of agricultural drought (Emily Black, Reading Uni) |
| 15:35-15:50 | Break |
| 15:50-16:20 | Counterfactual seasonal hindcasts: concept and their use in understanding recent climate trends (Michael Mayer, ECMWF) |
| 16:20-16:50 | Contribution of forcing factors and internal variability to the increase in European summer temperatures over the last decades (Pedro Roldan, BSC) |
| 16:50-17:05 | Discussion (if needed) |
23 September 2025, Tuesday
Join us live here.
| 14:00-14:30 | Drivers of multi-decadal trends in northern hemisphere summer atmospheric circulation (Gerard Marcet, BSC) |
| 14:30-15:00 | Drivers of multi-decadal trends in atmospheric circulation in the Pacific (Melissa Seabrook, Met Office) |
| 15:00-15:15 | Break |
| 15:15-15:14 | Dynamical systems methods to understand projected heatwave intensification (Eylon Vakrat, Toronto Uni) |
| 15:45-16:15 | The need to account for model error for prediction, projection and attribution (Doug Smith, Met Office) |
| 16:15-16:30 | Discussion (if needed) |