In the first edition of our “Researchers behind the EXPECT Project” series, we’re talking to Markus Donat, climate scientist at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, working in the fields of climate extremes, climate variability, climate predictability and climate change. As scientific coordinator of EXPECT, Markus has shared the importance of their work in better understanding and predicting regional climate changes and extreme weather.
What is the EXPECT project, and why does it matter to society?
Our ability to predict extreme climate events, like heatwaves and droughts, is currently limited. This is partly because existing climate models do not fully capture the complex interactions between different driving processes.
The EXPECT project focuses on understanding the relative contributions of the different processes, such as atmospheric circulation patterns and land-atmosphere interactions, and reducing the uncertainties related to their changes. By doing so, it aims to improve predictions and understanding of summer extremes, including heatwaves, droughts, and persistent precipitation.
What motivated you to get involved in EXPECT and to study climate research, specifically focusing on regional changes and extreme weather?
The scientific goals of the EXPECT project closely align with those of the WCRP Lighthouse activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Changes, which aims to develop an integrated capability for observing, explaining, predicting, and providing early warnings of Earth system changes at global and regional scales, with a focus on multi-annual to decadal timescales.
My colleagues and I, involved in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Lighthouse Activity, aimed to build a Horizon Europe project to support our shared research priorities defined under the WCRP. This idea led to the formation of EXPECT.
“I hope that the research can contribute to a vastly improved understanding of European summer extremes, in particular disentangling the roles of different drivers related to, for example, the atmospheric circulation and land-atmosphere interactions.”
Can you describe your role within the project?
As the scientific coordinator, I oversee both my own research and the efforts of 14 project partners. My role includes overseeing the different research activities and ensuring that all project goals and deliverables are completed on schedule.
Which key goals do you aim to accomplish through this project?
I hope that the EXPECT research can contribute to a vastly improved understanding of European summer extremes, in particular disentangling the roles of different drivers related to, for example, the atmospheric circulation and land-atmosphere interactions.
Our approach, called integrated attribution and prediction, scrutinises how key processes are represented in climate models, shedding light on the intricate interplay between different climate drivers. By deepening our understanding of these complex interactions, we can refine predictions, enhancing their accuracy and relevance for societal planning and decision-making. As a team, we aim to leverage this project to contribute significantly to the international research community, collaborating beyond the EXPECT project partners to advance the prediction of climate extremes.
How do you envision the project’s impact over the next four years?
EXPECT aims to make groundbreaking discoveries that improve predictions of climate extremes over the next few years and even decades. These predictions will give societies crucial tools to prepare for and adapt to near-term climate changes.