Climate change is accelerating, leading to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. Existing models often fall short in predicting these events with precision, which poses significant risks to communities, economies, and ecosystems. The EXPECT project aims to address this challenge by advancing our understanding and predictions of extreme summer events across Europe.
By studying the complex interactions between climate extreme drivers, such as atmospheric circulation patterns and land-surface conditions, EXPECT will assess their relative roles in driving past and future extremes, and how these processes are represented in climate models. The researchers will identify combined patterns in space and time linked to extreme events like heatwaves, droughts, or persistent rainfall, and develop calibrations to correct possible model shortcomings. The improved climate predictions will eventually help adaptation by providing valuable insights to various sectors, such as health and infrastructure.
Harnessing a variety of large data to predict extreme weather
According to Markus Donat, Project Coordinator of EXPECT, a core objective of EXPECT is “to leverage vast amounts of existing climate data, including Earth Observations (EO) and high-resolution model simulations, to improve our understanding of extreme weather.”
By building on the significant EU investments in climate data, EXPECT seeks to uncover new insights using advanced data analysis tools, including artificial intelligence.
There are several ways how combining EO and climate model data can provide new knowledge. For instance, the EXPECT team will:
- Train AI algorithms, by using observations and model data, to provide more accurate information about observed climate extremes, e.g. in regions or earlier time periods when observations are sparse.
- Combine different data sets for process-based evaluations of the latest climate models.
- Use EO and Data Assimilation techniques to derive more accurate model parameters, which will ultimately improve how climate models simulate key processes such as land-atmosphere interactions
- Use EO to initialise climate predictions, enabling more accurate estimates of near-term climate changes.
“A core objective of EXPECT is to leverage vast amounts of existing climate data, including Earth Observations (EO) and high-resolution model simulations, to improve our understanding of extreme weather.”
New methods for Integrated Attribution and Prediction
The ultimate goal of EXPECT is to develop an operational prototype that combines attribution of the roles of relevant climate drivers with future predictions to increase confidence in the predictions and provide actionable insights. This innovative approach will:
As a result, EXPECT will empower societies to make informed decisions, such as adapting infrastructure to withstand heatwaves or optimising water resources during droughts.
“This will enable better understood and more trustable climate predictions, with enhanced confidence, as a basis to underpin decision-making e.g. associated with climate adaptation,” as outlined by Markus Donat.
Building a resilient future
This project is helping governments, industries, and communities prepare for the challenges of a changing climate, by turning advanced data into actionable insights. With EXPECT, climate prediction will become not only more precise but also more practical for action.