Understanding and Addressing Climate Hazards
Climate change is transforming the characteristics of weather and climate hazards, leading to more frequent and severe events such as heatwaves, droughts, and persistent rainfall. These hazards can have devastating impacts on human health, agriculture, infrastructure, and ecosystems. As we face a future where such extreme events are likely to become more common, understanding the underlying physical processes driving these hazards is essential for reliable predictions of such extremes. This understanding is crucial for developing effective strategies to adapt to and mitigate the risks associated with climate change.
Why Does it Matter?
The ability to predict and manage climate hazards is one of the most pressing challenges of our time. Extreme weather events, such as the heatwaves and droughts experienced in recent years across the Northern Hemisphere, have demonstrated just how vulnerable our societies are to these changes. By studying the atmospheric circulation patterns that set the stage for these extreme events, as well as the local land-atmosphere interactions that can amplify them, Theme 3 of the EXPECT project will provide the knowledge needed to accurately predict, quantify, and manage climate hazards more effectively.
Investigating the Drivers of Climate Hazards
One of the key focuses of Theme 3 is understanding how large-scale atmospheric patterns, such as so-called Rossby waves, contribute to the development of heatwaves and droughts. These atmospheric waves can become ‘locked’ in place during the summer months, leading to persistent high-pressure systems that trap heat and dry out the land. This not only increases temperatures but also exacerbates drought conditions, creating a dangerous feedback loop. By investigating these patterns and their changes, EXPECT seeks to unravel the complex relationships between atmospheric dynamics and extreme weather events.
Additionally, the project will explore how local factors, such as soil moisture and land use, interact with these large-scale patterns. For instance, dry soil can reduce the amount of moisture available for plants and evaporation, further intensifying heatwaves and prolonging their duration. By understanding these interactions, EXPECT aims to improve our ability to predict when and where extreme events will occur and how severe they might be.
Advanced Methods for Detecting and Attributing Hazards
To achieve these goals, EXPECT will employ a range of innovative techniques. Both classical physics-based analyses and advanced data-driven analyses, including artificial intelligence applied to observational and simulation data, will be used to identify the processes that drive extremes and to quantify their roles. This combination of approaches will allow researchers to robustly explain the relevant processes and predict extremes with greater accuracy.
EXPECT will also utilise feature selection algorithms and explainable AI methods to identify the most important factors contributing to extreme weather events. These techniques will provide insights into how different variables, such as sea surface temperatures and land-surface conditions, interact to drive heatwaves, droughts, and persistent rainfall.