Abstract
This report summarises the research that has been carried out during the first 30 months of the EXPECT project to improve our understanding of how the atmosphere and land surface interact to influence weather and climate extremes. In particular, it examines the causes of extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall, with a strong focus on Europe.
The report looks at how large-scale atmospheric circulation, rising temperatures, soil moisture and other land-surface conditions can work together to make extreme weather more intense or longer lasting. It brings together research from eight partner institutions and uses a wide range of observations, climate models and analytical methods to study these processes.
Overall, the report shows that climate extremes are caused by a combination of interacting factors rather than temperature increases alone. Changes in atmospheric circulation can influence where and how strongly warming and extreme rainfall occur, while dry soils and other land conditions can further increase the severity of heatwaves and droughts. The research also explores new approaches, including artificial intelligence, satellite observations and high-resolution climate modelling, to better understand and predict these events. The findings can help improve climate models and provide more reliable information for climate prediction, risk assessment and adaptation planning.
